Every few months, a new asteroid enters the headlines. Some spark curiosity, others cause a brief wave of panic. This time, it’s 2024 YR4, a newly discovered space rock that, at first glance, seemed like it might pose a risk to Earth in 2032.
But as more data came in, scientists quickly ruled out any real danger.
What We Know About 2024 YR4
Spotted in late 2024, this asteroid belongs to a group known as near-Earth objects (NEOs)—celestial bodies that orbit close enough to our planet to warrant tracking.
Initially, some calculations suggested a slight chance that it could come uncomfortably close in 2032. But as astronomers refined their models, the numbers changed. The threat level dropped to almost zero.
Why Do Asteroid Warnings Keep Happening?
Asteroid tracking isn’t as simple as mapping a straight-line trajectory. Space is unpredictable—gravitational pulls, radiation, and other factors can slightly alter an object’s path over time. That’s why early estimates often contain some level of uncertainty.
It’s the same reason why these types of warnings appear in the news so often—the first numbers always carry a margin of error. Once more observations come in, the risk tends to disappear entirely.
Could an Asteroid Like This Ever Hit Earth?
Short answer? Yes, but probably not this one.
Most asteroids that enter Earth’s atmosphere burn up before reaching the ground. Even if a larger one were to hit, the effects would depend on its size and impact location. For example, the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013—about 20 meters wide—exploded mid-air and still caused damage across several Russian cities.
For a truly catastrophic event, we’d be talking about an object many times larger than 2024 YR4. And those? NASA and other agencies track them decades in advance.
Should We Be Worried?
Not at all. 2024 YR4 is just another space rock passing by. It won’t collide with Earth, and by the time it swings back around in the future, tracking technology will be even more precise.
If a real threat ever emerges, scientists will know about it long before it becomes a problem. Until then, there’s no need to panic over every asteroid that trends for a few days.
